Thursday, September 15, 2011

China states price for Italian rescue - Telegraph


Premier Wen Jiabao said his country and will play its part to "prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis," but warned that China will not sign a blank cheque for states that have failed to carry out full reform.

"Countries must first put their own houses in order," he told the World Economic Forum in Dalian.

Mr Wen said he had spoken to José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, laying the conditions for Chinese intervention.

"I made clear to him that we are confident Europe will overcome its difficulties and make a full recovery. We have on many occasions expressed our readiness to extend a helping hand, and that we are willing to invest more in European countries."

"At the same time, we need bold steps to give redirection to China's strategic objective. We believe they should recognise China’s full market economy status," he said, referring to World Trade Organisation rules.

"To show one’s sincerity on this issue ... is the way a friend treats another friend," he said.

Li Daokui, a member of the monetary policy committee of China's central bank, warned that nobody should delude themselves about China's willingness to play the role of white knight.

"I don't think any country can be saved by China in today's world. Countries can only save themselves by pushing through reforms," he told a panel at the forum, echoing langugage from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Professor Li said China must stop investing its hard-earned wealth in western debt and switch its incremental holdings into "physical assets", including the equities of major western companies.

"China is the most patient investor in the world. Imagine if our $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves had been controlled by George Soros: financial markets would be in much greater chaos," he said.

China has accumulated roughly 800bn euros of eurozone bonds over the last decade, mostly from the AAA core such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands. This has been a crucial factor explaining the strength of the euro.

It has intervened a number of times in peripheral markets since the crisis began, allegedly accumulating €50bn (£43.48bn)of Spanish debt.

However, the relentless climb in Spanish and Italian yields over the summer indicates clear limits to Chinese buying. China's central bank has already suffered a large paper loss on Portuguese debt bought with much fanfare before that country needed a rescue.

Italy's finance minister Giulio Tremonti said it is hard to persuade Asian investors to buy Italian debt when the European Central Bank hesitates to do so.

China's sovereign wealth fund -- China Investment Corporation -- has been in talks with Italy but is more interested in buying key industrial and strategic assets.

Lou Jiwei, CIC's chief, came under harsh attack in China for losses on US investments after the Lehman crisis. He is unlikely to risk his career a second time by taking a gamble on Italian or Spanish debt.

Market status under the WTO has become the Holy Grail for China, both because it makes the country less vulnerable to 'anti-dumping' sanctions from the EU and because it marks the country's final coming of age in the global economy.

Beijing is bitter that the EU recognises the market status of Russia despite open violations of WTO rules by the Kremlin, claiming that the "double standard" is a disguised form of protectionism.

Under its WTO accesssion accord in 2001, China remains a "non-market economy" for 15 years unless other members agree to fast-track the process. There could still be problems even after 2016 if major powers take a tough line.


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Tuesday, September 6, 2011

US embassy cable - 10BEIJING327

US embassy cable - 10BEIJING327

MEDIA REACTION: DALAI LAMA, U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS

Identifier:10BEIJING327
Origin:Embassy Beijing
Created:2010-02-08 08:13:00
Classification:UNCLASSIFIED
Tags:PREL ECON SENV KGHG KMDR OPRC CH
Redacted:This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
VZCZCXRO8664 RR RUEHCN RUEHGH DE RUEHBJ #0327/01 0390813 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 080813Z FEB 10 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8004 INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000327    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/CM, EAP/PA, EAP/PD, C  HQ PACOM FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR (J007)  SIPDIS    E.O. 12958:  N/A  TAGS: PREL, ECON, SENV, KGHG, KMDR, OPRC, CH    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DALAI LAMA, U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS    --------------------    Editorial Quotes  --------------------    1. DALAI LAMA    "China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson remarks on planned  Obama-Dalai meeting"    The official Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao)  (02/06)(pg 3): "Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ma Zhaoxu  said, 'China resolutely opposes the visit by the Dalai Lama to the  United States, and resolutely opposes U.S. leaders having contact  with the Dalai Lama.'  Ma continued to note that such a position [by  China] is 'constant and clear.' During President Obama's November  visit to China, Chinese leaders had elaborated on such a stance.  We  urge the U.S. to realize the high sensitivity of Tibet-related  issues, to seriously treat China's stance and concern, to not permit  the Dalai Lama's visit and to cease arranging meetings between him  and U.S. leaders so as to avoid further undermining of China-U.S.  ties."  (Note: Another major official newspaper Guangming Daily also  published this report.)    2. U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS    a. "Sino-U.S. 'trade war' is heating up again"    The Shanghai-based Shanghai Media Group (SMG) publication, China  Business News (Diyi Caijing)(02/08)(pg A1): "The United States  provoked a trade war again by imposing high anti-dumping duties on  Chinese-made gift boxes and packaging ribbon.  This once again shows  that 2010 is off to a difficult start for Sino-U.S. relations.  It  also reflects that, because of the mid-term elections, Obama is  eager to prove to the American voters that the U.S. Administration's  China policy is tough so as to restore his declining support rate.  Yao Jian, the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, issued a statement  on February 1, saying that following the financial crisis American  trade protectionism has risen.  China has become the biggest victim  of the U.S.'s abusive implementation of trade remedy measures.  While the anti-dumping and counter-veiling cases the U.S. is  imposing against China are relatively small in terms of value for a  particular industry, however they are related to the food and  clothing of a lot of people.  Ye Hailin, deputy director of the  Asia-Pacific Institute at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,  believes that, apart from other disharmonious factors between China  and the U.S., Sino-U.S. trade friction in 2010 is very worrisome.  Although the total volume of trade involved is not very large, it is  enough to affect the overall Sino-U.S. relationship."    b. "The United States no longer sits still; it frequently uses evil  tricks to force China to buy U.S. bonds"    The Shanghai-based Shanghai Media Group (SMG) publication, China  Business News (Diyi Caijing)(02/08)(pg A7): "This time the quick  change of the U.S. policy (toward China) has surprised quite a few  people.  The U.S. has almost used all deterring means, besides  military means, against China.  China must be clear on discovering  what the U.S. goals are behind its tough stances against China.  In  fact, a fierce competition between the currencies of big countries  has just started.  A crucial move for the U.S. is to shift its  crisis to other countries - by coercing China to buy U.S. treasury  bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible  to prevent China's foreign reserve from buying gold. The nature of  such behavior is a rogue lawyer's behavior of 'ripping off both  sides': taking advantage of cross-strait divergences, blackmailing  the Taiwan people's wealth by selling arms to Taiwan, and meanwhile  coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange  reserves and extorting wealth from the mainland's people. If we  [China] use all of our foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S.  Treasury bonds, then when someday the U.S. Federal Reserve suddenly  announces that the original ten old U.S. dollars are now worth only  one new U.S. dollar, and the new U.S. dollar is pegged to the gold -  we will be dumbfounded.  Today when the United States is determined  to beggar thy neighbor, shifting its crisis to China, the Chinese  must be very clear what the key to victory is.  It is by no means to  use new foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.  The  issues of Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, trade and so on are all false  tricks, while forcing China to buy U.S. bonds is the U.S.'s real  intention."    c. "Sino-U.S. trade friction is escalating but still manageable"    Guangdong 21st Century Publishing Company Ltd.'s business newspaper  21st Century Business Herald (21Shiji Jingji Baodao)(02/08)(pg 1):  "On February 5, the Commerce Department reported the primary ruling  on anti-dumping investigations on the U.S. chicken products.  Although China started the investigation last September, now happens  to also be the occasion when President Obama pushed China on RMB  appreciation, insisted on arms sales to Taiwan and will meet with    BEIJING 00000327  002 OF 002      the Dalai Lama.  For its twelfth five-year plan, China will promote  governments at all levels to conduct their policy objectives:  transformation from 'GDP-oriented only' to 'employment first.'  China and the U.S.'s emphasis on 'employment first' at the same time  will trigger a fierce collision.  Now the appropriate interpretation  of trade friction theory is 'productivity change' theory  - the  ability of a country, whose development is slower than other  countries, to learn also produced root causes for severe trade  friction and no country will be satisfied with the status of the  initial division of labor.   As a result, Sino-U.S. 'trade zones in  conflict' will become larger and the two will compete with each  other for jobs.  Unlike Japan, which is politically dependent on the  United States, China is independent from the U.S.  China will make  some changes in enlarging the imports of American products and the  RMB appreciation, but only to a limited extent.  Despite the  enlarging Sino-U.S. 'trade zones in conflict,' the intensity will be  lower than during the U.S.-Japan trade conflict.  If Obama turns  himself into both 'Wall Street's opposition,' and also the 'enemy'  of U.S. big business, then the intensity of Sino-U.S. trade conflict  will rise.  However, if Obama wants to narrow down as far as  possible this divide, then the Sino-U.S. trade friction, while  formidable, is still manageable."    HUNTSMAN 

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US embassy cable - 09BEIJING1134

US embassy cable - 09BEIJING1134

MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS, U.S. POLICY, CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES

Identifier:09BEIJING1134
Origin:Embassy Beijing
Created:2009-04-28 08:23:00
Classification:UNCLASSIFIED
Tags:OPRC KMDR CH PREL ECON
Redacted:This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
VZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB  DE RUEHBJ #1134 1180823 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 280823Z APR 09 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3690 INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI 
UNCLAS BEIJING 001134    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/CM, EAP/PA, EAP/PD, C  HQ PACOM FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR (J007)  SIPDIS    E.O. 12958:  N/A  TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, CH, PREL, ECON    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS, U.S. POLICY,  CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES    --------------------    Editorial Quotes  --------------------    1. U.S.-CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS    "China and Japan should alleviate the U.S. influence in their  countries' future development"    The official Communist Party international news publication Global  Times (Huanqiu Shibao)(04/28): "The Japanese Prime Minister will  visit China soon. This brings attention to the development of the  bilateral relationship between the two countries. The two countries  have both developed independently. China is gradually moving past  the 'American conceptual restrictions' that exist in the country,  especially after the results of the financial crisis.  China's  de-Americanization is gaining speed.  Japan's de- Japan's  de-Americanization is speeding up as well.  Japan is likely to  discard the U.S. completely and take steps closer to its East Asian  neighbor countries. The U.S. should not encourage Japan to develop  its military strength. U.S. interference will be an important factor  to overcome if China-Japan relations intend to develop maturely.  China should change their old thinking that U.S.-China relations are  more important than China-Japan relations. In fact, the significance  of the China-Japan relationship has also globalized, and is not  limited to Asia. China and Japan should seek more breakthroughs in  global cooperation. The two countries should contribute more in the  development of the world."    2. U.S. POLICY    "Obamaism is not yet fully formed"    The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal  (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): "Obama has just become president. During  his first 100 days in office, the concepts of Obamaism have  frequently appeared. Obamaism is characterized by the fact that the  Obama administration is aware that the U.S. cannot solve so many  international issues by itself.  It is very different from Bush's  cowboy diplomacy.  However, Obamaism hasn't fully formed and it is  facing challenges. People doubt that Obama will make any  breakthroughs in the core strategic interests and values of the U.S.  It is doubtful that he will give up the country's long-term pursuit  of hegemony. Obama once stated that he would reshape the global  leadership of the U.S. This shows that the U.S. does not intend to  be an equal partner in international communications. The U.S. also  struggles with the variant nature of its policies. One can gain  insight from the U.S. Cuba policy. However, people can still be  hopeful."    3. CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES    "China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with  one stone"    The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal  (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): "According to China's National Foreign  Exchanges Administration China 's gold reserves have recently  increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been  located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have  always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken  gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't  want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the  U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is  very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role  as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold  reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards  reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in  promoting the internationalization of the RMB."      PICCUTA 

US embassy cable - 09BEIJING1134:

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Wednesday, August 3, 2011

U.S. Economy Running at ‘Stall Speed’ - Yahoo! Finance

Pacific Investment Management Co. and BlackRock Inc., which together oversee almost $5 trillion, say the U.S. economy is stalling.

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pimco, and Peter Fisher, head of fixed income at BlackRock, say the Federal Reserve is preparing measures to counter the slowdown.

“We’re not looking at a recession yet, but we’re at a tipping point,” Gross said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We’re at what we call a stall speed in which corporate profits don’t grow, jobs aren’t created,” said Gross, who is based in Newport Beach, California.

The U.S. recovery that began two years ago has been losing momentum and there are even odds the nation will slip into a recession, according to Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein. Investors who are seeking safety from a slowing economy and betting the central bank will keep interest rates on hold are snapping up Treasuries, sending two-year yields to a record low 0.3081 percent today.

The Fed may arrange a third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, Gross said. The central bank purchased bonds to cap borrowing costs in the first two easing efforts. The Fed has also promised to keep the target for overnight bank lending low for an “extended period.” Policy makers cut the target rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent in 2008 to support the economy.

QE3 ‘Potential’

“There’s a potential for a QE3,” said Gross, who oversees $1.28 trillion as Pimco’s co-chief investment officer. “I suggest, however, that that takes the form really of language, of extended period language, and maybe some type of cap on five- or even 10-year Treasury securities.”

Two-year notes yield seven basis points more than the upper end of the Fed’s target range, the least since Dec. 15, 2008. Policy makers cut the benchmark to the record-low current range the following day.

The U.S. economy is “very close to stall speed” and the Fed may need to consider signaling a longer commitment to low interest rates, according to BlackRock’s Fisher, who is based in New York.

“I believe the Fed is dusting off contingency plans if the economy does not improve,” he said in a report that BlackRock distributed by e-mail today. Fisher worked for 15 years at the Fed Bank of New York, according to BlackRock, which has $3.66 trillion in assets.

U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, after a 0.4 percent pace in the prior period, the worst six months since the recovery began in June 2009, according to the Commerce Department.

“This economy is really balanced on the edge,” Feldstein said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. “There’s now a 50 percent chance that we could slide into a new recession,” he said.


U.S. Economy Running at ‘Stall Speed’ - Yahoo! Finance