Thursday, September 15, 2011

China states price for Italian rescue - Telegraph


Premier Wen Jiabao said his country and will play its part to "prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis," but warned that China will not sign a blank cheque for states that have failed to carry out full reform.

"Countries must first put their own houses in order," he told the World Economic Forum in Dalian.

Mr Wen said he had spoken to José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, laying the conditions for Chinese intervention.

"I made clear to him that we are confident Europe will overcome its difficulties and make a full recovery. We have on many occasions expressed our readiness to extend a helping hand, and that we are willing to invest more in European countries."

"At the same time, we need bold steps to give redirection to China's strategic objective. We believe they should recognise China’s full market economy status," he said, referring to World Trade Organisation rules.

"To show one’s sincerity on this issue ... is the way a friend treats another friend," he said.

Li Daokui, a member of the monetary policy committee of China's central bank, warned that nobody should delude themselves about China's willingness to play the role of white knight.

"I don't think any country can be saved by China in today's world. Countries can only save themselves by pushing through reforms," he told a panel at the forum, echoing langugage from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Professor Li said China must stop investing its hard-earned wealth in western debt and switch its incremental holdings into "physical assets", including the equities of major western companies.

"China is the most patient investor in the world. Imagine if our $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves had been controlled by George Soros: financial markets would be in much greater chaos," he said.

China has accumulated roughly 800bn euros of eurozone bonds over the last decade, mostly from the AAA core such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands. This has been a crucial factor explaining the strength of the euro.

It has intervened a number of times in peripheral markets since the crisis began, allegedly accumulating €50bn (£43.48bn)of Spanish debt.

However, the relentless climb in Spanish and Italian yields over the summer indicates clear limits to Chinese buying. China's central bank has already suffered a large paper loss on Portuguese debt bought with much fanfare before that country needed a rescue.

Italy's finance minister Giulio Tremonti said it is hard to persuade Asian investors to buy Italian debt when the European Central Bank hesitates to do so.

China's sovereign wealth fund -- China Investment Corporation -- has been in talks with Italy but is more interested in buying key industrial and strategic assets.

Lou Jiwei, CIC's chief, came under harsh attack in China for losses on US investments after the Lehman crisis. He is unlikely to risk his career a second time by taking a gamble on Italian or Spanish debt.

Market status under the WTO has become the Holy Grail for China, both because it makes the country less vulnerable to 'anti-dumping' sanctions from the EU and because it marks the country's final coming of age in the global economy.

Beijing is bitter that the EU recognises the market status of Russia despite open violations of WTO rules by the Kremlin, claiming that the "double standard" is a disguised form of protectionism.

Under its WTO accesssion accord in 2001, China remains a "non-market economy" for 15 years unless other members agree to fast-track the process. There could still be problems even after 2016 if major powers take a tough line.


China states price for Italian rescue - Telegraph:

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Tuesday, September 6, 2011

US embassy cable - 10BEIJING327

US embassy cable - 10BEIJING327

MEDIA REACTION: DALAI LAMA, U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS

Identifier:10BEIJING327
Origin:Embassy Beijing
Created:2010-02-08 08:13:00
Classification:UNCLASSIFIED
Tags:PREL ECON SENV KGHG KMDR OPRC CH
Redacted:This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
VZCZCXRO8664 RR RUEHCN RUEHGH DE RUEHBJ #0327/01 0390813 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 080813Z FEB 10 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8004 INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000327    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/CM, EAP/PA, EAP/PD, C  HQ PACOM FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR (J007)  SIPDIS    E.O. 12958:  N/A  TAGS: PREL, ECON, SENV, KGHG, KMDR, OPRC, CH    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DALAI LAMA, U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS    --------------------    Editorial Quotes  --------------------    1. DALAI LAMA    "China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson remarks on planned  Obama-Dalai meeting"    The official Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao)  (02/06)(pg 3): "Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ma Zhaoxu  said, 'China resolutely opposes the visit by the Dalai Lama to the  United States, and resolutely opposes U.S. leaders having contact  with the Dalai Lama.'  Ma continued to note that such a position [by  China] is 'constant and clear.' During President Obama's November  visit to China, Chinese leaders had elaborated on such a stance.  We  urge the U.S. to realize the high sensitivity of Tibet-related  issues, to seriously treat China's stance and concern, to not permit  the Dalai Lama's visit and to cease arranging meetings between him  and U.S. leaders so as to avoid further undermining of China-U.S.  ties."  (Note: Another major official newspaper Guangming Daily also  published this report.)    2. U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS    a. "Sino-U.S. 'trade war' is heating up again"    The Shanghai-based Shanghai Media Group (SMG) publication, China  Business News (Diyi Caijing)(02/08)(pg A1): "The United States  provoked a trade war again by imposing high anti-dumping duties on  Chinese-made gift boxes and packaging ribbon.  This once again shows  that 2010 is off to a difficult start for Sino-U.S. relations.  It  also reflects that, because of the mid-term elections, Obama is  eager to prove to the American voters that the U.S. Administration's  China policy is tough so as to restore his declining support rate.  Yao Jian, the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, issued a statement  on February 1, saying that following the financial crisis American  trade protectionism has risen.  China has become the biggest victim  of the U.S.'s abusive implementation of trade remedy measures.  While the anti-dumping and counter-veiling cases the U.S. is  imposing against China are relatively small in terms of value for a  particular industry, however they are related to the food and  clothing of a lot of people.  Ye Hailin, deputy director of the  Asia-Pacific Institute at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,  believes that, apart from other disharmonious factors between China  and the U.S., Sino-U.S. trade friction in 2010 is very worrisome.  Although the total volume of trade involved is not very large, it is  enough to affect the overall Sino-U.S. relationship."    b. "The United States no longer sits still; it frequently uses evil  tricks to force China to buy U.S. bonds"    The Shanghai-based Shanghai Media Group (SMG) publication, China  Business News (Diyi Caijing)(02/08)(pg A7): "This time the quick  change of the U.S. policy (toward China) has surprised quite a few  people.  The U.S. has almost used all deterring means, besides  military means, against China.  China must be clear on discovering  what the U.S. goals are behind its tough stances against China.  In  fact, a fierce competition between the currencies of big countries  has just started.  A crucial move for the U.S. is to shift its  crisis to other countries - by coercing China to buy U.S. treasury  bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible  to prevent China's foreign reserve from buying gold. The nature of  such behavior is a rogue lawyer's behavior of 'ripping off both  sides': taking advantage of cross-strait divergences, blackmailing  the Taiwan people's wealth by selling arms to Taiwan, and meanwhile  coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange  reserves and extorting wealth from the mainland's people. If we  [China] use all of our foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S.  Treasury bonds, then when someday the U.S. Federal Reserve suddenly  announces that the original ten old U.S. dollars are now worth only  one new U.S. dollar, and the new U.S. dollar is pegged to the gold -  we will be dumbfounded.  Today when the United States is determined  to beggar thy neighbor, shifting its crisis to China, the Chinese  must be very clear what the key to victory is.  It is by no means to  use new foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.  The  issues of Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, trade and so on are all false  tricks, while forcing China to buy U.S. bonds is the U.S.'s real  intention."    c. "Sino-U.S. trade friction is escalating but still manageable"    Guangdong 21st Century Publishing Company Ltd.'s business newspaper  21st Century Business Herald (21Shiji Jingji Baodao)(02/08)(pg 1):  "On February 5, the Commerce Department reported the primary ruling  on anti-dumping investigations on the U.S. chicken products.  Although China started the investigation last September, now happens  to also be the occasion when President Obama pushed China on RMB  appreciation, insisted on arms sales to Taiwan and will meet with    BEIJING 00000327  002 OF 002      the Dalai Lama.  For its twelfth five-year plan, China will promote  governments at all levels to conduct their policy objectives:  transformation from 'GDP-oriented only' to 'employment first.'  China and the U.S.'s emphasis on 'employment first' at the same time  will trigger a fierce collision.  Now the appropriate interpretation  of trade friction theory is 'productivity change' theory  - the  ability of a country, whose development is slower than other  countries, to learn also produced root causes for severe trade  friction and no country will be satisfied with the status of the  initial division of labor.   As a result, Sino-U.S. 'trade zones in  conflict' will become larger and the two will compete with each  other for jobs.  Unlike Japan, which is politically dependent on the  United States, China is independent from the U.S.  China will make  some changes in enlarging the imports of American products and the  RMB appreciation, but only to a limited extent.  Despite the  enlarging Sino-U.S. 'trade zones in conflict,' the intensity will be  lower than during the U.S.-Japan trade conflict.  If Obama turns  himself into both 'Wall Street's opposition,' and also the 'enemy'  of U.S. big business, then the intensity of Sino-U.S. trade conflict  will rise.  However, if Obama wants to narrow down as far as  possible this divide, then the Sino-U.S. trade friction, while  formidable, is still manageable."    HUNTSMAN 

US embassy cable - 10BEIJING327:

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US embassy cable - 09BEIJING1134

US embassy cable - 09BEIJING1134

MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS, U.S. POLICY, CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES

Identifier:09BEIJING1134
Origin:Embassy Beijing
Created:2009-04-28 08:23:00
Classification:UNCLASSIFIED
Tags:OPRC KMDR CH PREL ECON
Redacted:This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
VZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB  DE RUEHBJ #1134 1180823 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 280823Z APR 09 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3690 INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI 
UNCLAS BEIJING 001134    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/CM, EAP/PA, EAP/PD, C  HQ PACOM FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR (J007)  SIPDIS    E.O. 12958:  N/A  TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, CH, PREL, ECON    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS, U.S. POLICY,  CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES    --------------------    Editorial Quotes  --------------------    1. U.S.-CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS    "China and Japan should alleviate the U.S. influence in their  countries' future development"    The official Communist Party international news publication Global  Times (Huanqiu Shibao)(04/28): "The Japanese Prime Minister will  visit China soon. This brings attention to the development of the  bilateral relationship between the two countries. The two countries  have both developed independently. China is gradually moving past  the 'American conceptual restrictions' that exist in the country,  especially after the results of the financial crisis.  China's  de-Americanization is gaining speed.  Japan's de- Japan's  de-Americanization is speeding up as well.  Japan is likely to  discard the U.S. completely and take steps closer to its East Asian  neighbor countries. The U.S. should not encourage Japan to develop  its military strength. U.S. interference will be an important factor  to overcome if China-Japan relations intend to develop maturely.  China should change their old thinking that U.S.-China relations are  more important than China-Japan relations. In fact, the significance  of the China-Japan relationship has also globalized, and is not  limited to Asia. China and Japan should seek more breakthroughs in  global cooperation. The two countries should contribute more in the  development of the world."    2. U.S. POLICY    "Obamaism is not yet fully formed"    The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal  (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): "Obama has just become president. During  his first 100 days in office, the concepts of Obamaism have  frequently appeared. Obamaism is characterized by the fact that the  Obama administration is aware that the U.S. cannot solve so many  international issues by itself.  It is very different from Bush's  cowboy diplomacy.  However, Obamaism hasn't fully formed and it is  facing challenges. People doubt that Obama will make any  breakthroughs in the core strategic interests and values of the U.S.  It is doubtful that he will give up the country's long-term pursuit  of hegemony. Obama once stated that he would reshape the global  leadership of the U.S. This shows that the U.S. does not intend to  be an equal partner in international communications. The U.S. also  struggles with the variant nature of its policies. One can gain  insight from the U.S. Cuba policy. However, people can still be  hopeful."    3. CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES    "China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with  one stone"    The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal  (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): "According to China's National Foreign  Exchanges Administration China 's gold reserves have recently  increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been  located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have  always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken  gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't  want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the  U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is  very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role  as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold  reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards  reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in  promoting the internationalization of the RMB."      PICCUTA 

US embassy cable - 09BEIJING1134:

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Wednesday, August 3, 2011

U.S. Economy Running at ‘Stall Speed’ - Yahoo! Finance

Pacific Investment Management Co. and BlackRock Inc., which together oversee almost $5 trillion, say the U.S. economy is stalling.

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pimco, and Peter Fisher, head of fixed income at BlackRock, say the Federal Reserve is preparing measures to counter the slowdown.

“We’re not looking at a recession yet, but we’re at a tipping point,” Gross said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We’re at what we call a stall speed in which corporate profits don’t grow, jobs aren’t created,” said Gross, who is based in Newport Beach, California.

The U.S. recovery that began two years ago has been losing momentum and there are even odds the nation will slip into a recession, according to Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein. Investors who are seeking safety from a slowing economy and betting the central bank will keep interest rates on hold are snapping up Treasuries, sending two-year yields to a record low 0.3081 percent today.

The Fed may arrange a third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, Gross said. The central bank purchased bonds to cap borrowing costs in the first two easing efforts. The Fed has also promised to keep the target for overnight bank lending low for an “extended period.” Policy makers cut the target rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent in 2008 to support the economy.

QE3 ‘Potential’

“There’s a potential for a QE3,” said Gross, who oversees $1.28 trillion as Pimco’s co-chief investment officer. “I suggest, however, that that takes the form really of language, of extended period language, and maybe some type of cap on five- or even 10-year Treasury securities.”

Two-year notes yield seven basis points more than the upper end of the Fed’s target range, the least since Dec. 15, 2008. Policy makers cut the benchmark to the record-low current range the following day.

The U.S. economy is “very close to stall speed” and the Fed may need to consider signaling a longer commitment to low interest rates, according to BlackRock’s Fisher, who is based in New York.

“I believe the Fed is dusting off contingency plans if the economy does not improve,” he said in a report that BlackRock distributed by e-mail today. Fisher worked for 15 years at the Fed Bank of New York, according to BlackRock, which has $3.66 trillion in assets.

U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, after a 0.4 percent pace in the prior period, the worst six months since the recovery began in June 2009, according to the Commerce Department.

“This economy is really balanced on the edge,” Feldstein said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. “There’s now a 50 percent chance that we could slide into a new recession,” he said.


U.S. Economy Running at ‘Stall Speed’ - Yahoo! Finance

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

China loses trust in US economic stewardship

The Chinese have long admired America's economic dynamism. But they have lost confidence in America's government and its dysfunctional economic stewardship. That message came through loud and clear in my recent travels to Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Hong Kong.

Coming so shortly on the heels of the subprime crisis, the debate over the debt ceiling and the budget deficit is the last straw. Senior Chinese officials are appalled at how the United States allows politics to trump financial stability. One high-ranking policymaker noted in mid-July, "This is truly shocking… We understand politics, but your government's continued recklessness is astonishing."

China is no innocent bystander in America's race to the abyss. In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990's, China amassed some $3.2 trillion (Dh11.74 trillion) in foreign-exchange reserves in order to insulate its system from external shocks.

Fully two-thirds of that total — around $2 trillion — is invested in dollar-based assets, largely US Treasuries and agency securities (ie, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). As a result, China surpassed Japan in late 2008 as the largest foreign holder of US financial assets.

Not only did China feel secure in placing such a large bet on the once relatively riskless components of the world's reserve currency, but its exchange-rate policy left it little choice. In order to maintain a tight relationship between the renminbi and the dollar, China had to recycle a disproportionate share of its foreign-exchange reserves into dollar-based assets.

Those days are over. China recognises that it no longer makes sense to stay with its current growth strategy — one that relies heavily on a combination of exports and a massive buffer of dollar-denominated foreign-exchange reserves. Three key developments led the Chinese leadership to this conclusion:

Competitive

First, the crisis and Great Recession of 2008-2009 were a wake-up call. While Chinese export industries remain highly competitive, there are understandable doubts about the post-crisis state of foreign demand for Chinese products. Long the most powerful driver of Chinese growth, there is now considerable downside to an export-led impetus.

Second, the costs of the insurance premium — the outsize, largely dollar-denominated reservoir of China's foreign-exchange reserves — have been magnified by political risk.

In recent years, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao have repeatedly expressed concerns about US fiscal policy and the safe-haven status of Treasuries.

Like most Americans, China's leaders believe that the US will ultimately dodge the bullet of an outright default. But that's not the point. There is now great scepticism as to the substance of any "fix".

All of this spells lasting damage to the credibility of Washington's commitment to the "full faith and credit" of the US government. And that raises serious questions about the wisdom of China's massive investments in dollar-denominated assets.

Finally, China's leadership is mindful of the risks implied by its own macroeconomic imbalances — and of the role that its export-led growth and dollar-based foreign-exchange accumulation plays in perpetuating those imbalances. Moreover, the Chinese understand the political pressure that a growth-starved developed world is putting on its tight management of the renminbi's exchange rate relative to the dollar — pressure that is strikingly reminiscent of a similar campaign directed at Japan in the mid-1980's.

However, unlike Japan, China will not accede to calls for a sharp one-off revaluation of the renminbi. At the same time, it recognises the need to address these geopolitical tensions. But China will do so by providing stimulus to internal demand.

With these considerations in mind, China has adopted a very transparent response. Its new 12th Five-Year Plan says it all — a pro-consumption shift in China's economic structure that addresses head-on China's unsustainable imbalances.

So China, the largest foreign buyer of US government paper, will soon say, "enough". Yet another vacuous budget deal, in conjunction with weaker-than-expected growth for the US economy for years to come, spells a protracted period of outsize government deficits.

The cavalier response heard from Washington insiders is that the Chinese wouldn't dare spark such an endgame. After all, where else would they place their asset bets? Why would they risk losses in their massive portfolio of dollar-based assets?

China's answers to those questions are clear: it is no longer willing to risk financial and economic stability on the basis of Washington's hollow promises and tarnished economic stewardship. The Chinese are finally saying no. Read their lips.



gulfnews : China loses trust in US economic stewardship

Putin says U.S. is parasite on global economy | Reuters

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accused the United States Monday of living beyond its means "like a parasite" on the global economy and said dollar dominance was a threat to the financial markets.

"They are living beyond their means and shifting a part of the weight of their problems to the world economy," Putin told the pro-Kremlin youth group Nashi while touring its lakeside summer camp some five hours drive north of Moscow.

"They are living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar," Putin said at the open-air meeting with admiring young Russians in what looked like early campaigning before parliamentary and presidential polls.

US President Barack Obama earlier announced a last-ditch deal to cut about $2.4 trillion from the U.S. deficit over a decade, avoid a crushing debt default and stave off the risk that the nation's AAA credit rating would be downgraded.

The deal initially soothed anxieties and led Russian stocks to jump to three-month highs, but jitters remained over the possibility of a credit downgrade.

"Thank god," Putin said, "that they had enough common sense and responsibility to make a balanced decision."

But Putin, who has often criticized the United States' foreign exchange policy, noted that Russia holds a large amount of U.S. bonds and treasuries.

"If over there (in America) there is a systemic malfunction,

this will affect everyone," Putin told the young Russians.

"Countries like Russia and China hold a significant part of their reserves in American securities ... There should be other reserve currencies."

U.S.-Russian ties soured during Putin's 2000-2008 presidency but have warmed significantly since his protégé and successor President Dmitry Medvedev responded to Obama's stated desire for a "reset" in bilateral relations.

EARLY CAMPAIGNING?

Casually dressed in khaki trousers and a striped white shirt, Putin flew by helicopter to the tented camp as part of a string of appearances that are being closely watched in the run-up to the elections.

He did not say whether he plans a return to the Kremlin or will stand aside for Medvedev, his partner in Russia's leadership tandem, to run for a second term.

But young people crowding round Putin, caught up in the campaigning spirit created by huge portraits of Putin hung from trees, were not shy about saying who they wanted as president.

"Russia's next president will be small, bald and look like Putin," 17-year-old Ilya Mzokov joked with reporters. Asked why Medvedev was not paying a visit to the summer camp, he said: "Only serious people come here."

Youngsters chanted Putin's name and applauded his remarks as he strolled round the camp, where US-style business seminars, extreme sports and political mudslinging were among the topics on offer.

Putin, whose macho image appeals to many Russians, briefly swung himself up the first half of a climbing wall, filmed by a gaggle of state television cameras.

Nashi, which means "Our People," was created by the Kremlin to counter popular dissent after youth activism helped topple a pro-Moscow government in Ukraine's 2005 Orange revolution.

The group has worked to spread a personality cult around Putin and regularly campaigns against Kremlin critics.

Opinion polls show Putin, still widely viewed as the country's paramount leader, retains near 70 percent approval.

But his United Russia party is trying to reverse a slide in popularity before December parliamentary polls, hoping to use a strong showing there to help Putin in the March 2012 presidential vote.


Putin says U.S. is parasite on global economy | Reuters

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Yu Yongding Says China Needs to Hold Less Treasuries as Safety a ‘Mirage’ - Bloomberg

Former Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding repeated his call forChina to reduce its Treasury holdings amid an impasse among policy makers on raising the U.S. government’s debt limit.

“U.S. bonds are not safe, but people think they are safe,” Yu, a researcher at a Beijing institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters at a briefing in Mumbai, India, today. “That is a mirage.”

President Barack Obama’s administration and Democrats and Republicans in Congress are locked in a standoff over what kind of deficit-cutting measures to tie to an increase in the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. The Treasury Department has said the U.S. exhausts its borrowing authority on Aug. 2 and risks going into default.

Yu spoke to reporters before giving a lecture at an event organized by Export-Import Bank ofIndia.

Xia Bin, a current adviser to the Chinese central bank, said July 25 that he’s confident that U.S. political leaders will reach an agreement before the deadline.

A U.S. default would be “disastrous,” Yu said today.

In March, Yu said that China, the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries with $1.16 trillion of the securities, should halt purchases because of the risk of an eventual default. In June, he predicted that credit agencies would limit the severity of any downgrade of the U.S. rating to avoid investor panic.


Yu Yongding Says China Needs to Hold Less Treasuries as Safety a ‘Mirage’ - Bloomberg

Saturday, July 23, 2011

US Debt versus gold

Debt versus gold

Default Now, or Suffer a More Expensive Crisis Later: Ron Paul - Bloomberg

Default Now, or Suffer a More Expensive Crisis Later: Ron Paul

Debate over the debt ceiling has reached a fever pitch in recent weeks, with each side trying to outdo the other in a game of political chicken. If you believe some of the things that are being written, the world will come to an end if the U.S. defaults on even the tiniest portion of its debt.

In strict terms, the default being discussed will occur if the U.S. fails to meet its debt obligations, through failure to pay either interest or principal due a bondholder. Proponents of raising the debt ceiling claim that a default on Aug. 2 is unprecedented and will result in calamity (never mind that this is simply an arbitrary date, easily changed, marking a congressional recess). My expectations of such a scenario are more sanguine.

The U.S. government defaulted at least three times on its obligations during the 20th century.

-- In 1934, the government banned ownership of gold and eliminated the right to exchange gold certificates for gold coins. It then immediately revalued gold from $20.67 per troy ounce to $35, thus devaluing the dollar holdings of all Americans by 40 percent.

-- From 1934 to 1968, the federal government continued to issue and redeem silver certificates, notes that circulated as legal tender that could be redeemed for silver coins or silver bars. In 1968, Congress unilaterally reneged on this obligation, too.

-- From 1934 to 1971, foreign governments were permitted by the U.S. government to exchange their dollars for gold through the gold window. In 1971, President Richard Nixon severed this final link between the dollar and gold by closing the gold window, thus in effect defaulting once again on a debt obligation of the U.S. government.

Unlimited Spending

No longer constrained by any sort of commodity backing, the federal government was now free to engage in almost unlimited fiscal profligacy, the only check on its spending being the market’s appetite for Treasury debt. Despite the defaults in 1934, 1968 and 1971, world markets have been only too willing to purchase Treasury debt and thereby fund the government’s deficit spending. If these major defaults didn’t result in decreased investor appetite for U.S. obligations, I see no reason why defaulting on a small amount of debt this August would cause any major changes.

The national debt now stands at just over $14 trillion, while net total liabilities are estimated at over $200 trillion. The government is insolvent, as there is no way that this massive sum of liabilities can ever be paid off. Successive Congresses and administrations have shown absolutely no restraint when it comes to the budget process, and the idea that either of the two parties is serious about getting our fiscal house in order is laughable.

Boom and Bust

The Austrian School’s theory of the business cycle describes how loose central bank monetary policy causes booms and busts: It drives down interest rates below the market rate, lowering the cost of borrowing; encourages malinvestment; and causes economic miscalculation as resources are diverted from the highest value use as reflected in true consumer preferences. Loose monetary policy caused the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble, and now is causing the government debt bubble.

For far too long, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and quantitative easing have kept interest rates artificially low, enabling the government to drastically increase its spending by funding its profligacy through new debt whose service costs were lower than they otherwise would have been.

Neither Republicans nor Democrats sought to end this gravy train, with one party prioritizing war spending and the other prioritizing welfare spending, and with both supporting both types of spending. But now, with the end of the second round of quantitative easing, the federal funds rate at the zero bound, and the debt limit maxed out, Congress finds itself in a real quandary.

Hard Decisions

It isn’t too late to return to fiscal sanity. We could start by canceling out the debt held by theFederal Reserve, which would clear $1.6 trillion under the debt ceiling. Or we could cut trillions of dollars in spending by bringing our troops home from overseas, making gradual reforms to Social Security and Medicare, and bringing the federal government back within the limits envisioned by the Constitution. Yet no one is willing to step up to the plate and make the hard decisions that are necessary. Everyone wants to kick the can down the road and believe that deficit spending can continue unabated.

Unless major changes are made today, the U.S. will default on its debt sooner or later, and it is certainly preferable that it be sooner rather than later.

If the government defaults on its debt now, the consequences undoubtedly will be painful in the short term. The loss of its AAA rating will raise the cost of issuing new debt, but this is not altogether a bad thing. Higher borrowing costs will ensure that the government cannot continue the same old spending policies. Budgets will have to be brought into balance (as the cost of servicing debt will be so expensive as to preclude future debt financing of government operations), so hopefully, in the long term, the government will return to sound financial footing.

Raising the Ceiling

The alternative to defaulting now is to keep increasing the debt ceiling, keep spending like a drunken sailor, and hope that the default comes after we die. A future default won’t take the form of a missed payment, but rather will come through hyperinflation. The already incestuous relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will grow even closer as the Fed begins to purchase debt directly from the Treasury and monetizes debt on a scale that makes QE2 look like a drop in the bucket. Imagine the societal breakdown of Weimar Germany, but in a country five times as large. That is what we face if we do not come to terms with our debt problem immediately.

Default will be painful, but it is all but inevitable for a country as heavily indebted as the U.S. Just as pumping money into the system to combat a recession only ensures an unsustainable economic boom and a future recession worse than the first, so too does continuously raising the debt ceiling only forestall the day of reckoning and ensure that, when it comes, it will be cataclysmic.

We have a choice: default now and take our medicine, or put it off as long as possible, when the effects will be much worse.


Default Now, or Suffer a More Expensive Crisis Later: Ron Paul - Bloomberg