Thursday, March 31, 2011

Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation - USATODAY.com

U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday.

  • The nation's largest retailer needs to get back to its roots as the lowest priced one-stop shop for consumers, Walmart CEO Bill SImon said.

    By Spencer Platt, Getty Images

    The nation's largest retailer needs to get back to its roots as the lowest priced one-stop shop for consumers, Walmart CEO Bill SImon said.

By Spencer Platt, Getty Images

The nation's largest retailer needs to get back to its roots as the lowest priced one-stop shop for consumers, Walmart CEO Bill SImon said.

The world's largest retailer is working with suppliers to minimize the effect of cost increases and believes its low-cost business model will position it better than its competitors.

Still, inflation is "going to be serious," Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon said during a meeting with USA TODAY's editorial board. "We're seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate."

Along with steep increases in raw material costs, John Long, a retail strategist at Kurt Salmon, says labor costs in China and fuel costs for transportation are weighing heavily on retailers. He predicts prices will start increasing at all retailers in June.

"Every single retailer has and is paying more for the items they sell, and retailers will be passing some of these costs along," Long says. "Except for fuel costs, U.S. consumers haven't seen much in the way of inflation for almost a decade, so a broad-based increase in prices will be unprecedented in recent memory."

Consumer prices — or the consumer price index — rose 0.5% in February, the most since mid-2009, largely because of surging food and gasoline prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose a more modest 0.2%, though that still exceeded estimates.

The scenario hits Wal-Mart as it is trying to return to the low across-the-board prices it became famous for. Some prices rose as the company paid for costly store renovations.

"We're in a position to use scale to hold prices lower longer ... even in an inflationary environment," Simon says. "We will have the lowest prices in the market."

Major retailers such as Wal-Mart are the best positioned to mitigate some cost increases, Long says. Wal-Mart, for example, could have "access to any factory in any country around the globe" to mitigate the effect of inflation in the U.S., Long says.

Still, "it's certainly going to have an impact," Long says. "No retailer is going to be able to wish this new cost reality away. They're not going to be able to insulate the consumer 100%."Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation - USATODAY.com

Treasury Sells $29 Billion In Bonds, Bringing Total Settled US Debt To 14.311 Trillion, More Than The Debt Ceiling | zero hedge

First, the irrelevant news:

Today's $29 billion 7 Year auction just closed at a yield of 2.895%, the highest since April 2010, just the time when QE1 was ending and everyone was certain there would be no follow through monetization. The Bid To Cover was 2.79, weaker compared to recent auctions, and 2 bps wider of the When Issued, implying the auction was not all that hot. Directs took down 8.76%, in line with the last year average, Indirects accounts for 49.41%, or the lowest foreign take down since November 2010, while PDs bought 41.83% of the auction. Altogether a weak auction but it's not like the PDs would let it fail especially not with QB9 becoming the next "flip back to the Fed" bond for the PD community.

Next, the relevant news:

Now bear with us for a second: the most recently disclosed total debt was 14,211,567,662,931.23 as of March 28. Thisexcludes the settlement of all of this week's auctions which amount to $35 + $35 + $29 billion (including today) or $99 billion. Adding the two amounts to $14,310,567,662,931.23. As a reminder the debt ceiling is$14,294,000,000,000.00. In other words, the total US debt just passed the debt limit - break out the Champagne! Granted there is a buffer of $52.2 billion between the total debt and the debt actually subject to the ceiling, meaning that America is not in default, yet. Therefore, the total debt subject to the limit assuming full settlement right now is $14,258,341,662,931. Which means the US is now $35.7 billion away from a bona fide breach of the debt ceiling. Yes, there are some caveats, and it is possible that there will be an accelerated redemption of bills over the next few days, pushing the total debt slightly lower, but readers get the idea. Complicating things, the SFP unwind is complete with just $5 billion in 56 Day Cash Management Bills on the books, and no longer a buffer of debt ceiling extension.

Which brings up the question: with a government shut down looming any minute, shouldn't Congress be tackling the issue of what happens when the US enter technical default some time in the second week of April when the next battery of approximately $67 billion in new bonds are issued, which also happens to be just as tax rebate (and thus outflow) season peaks?Treasury Sells $29 Billion In Bonds, Bringing Total Settled US Debt To 14.311 Trillion, More Than The Debt Ceiling | zero hedge

Stop The Madness: Make The Dollar As Good As Gold - Louis Woodhill - Unconventional Logic - Forbes

Unstable money creates anxiety. By now, the dollar has been unstable enough, for long enough, that this anxiety is popping out everywhere. TV commercials are urging people to buy gold, sales of “survivalist” books are rising, and consumer confidence is plunging. And, on March 22, “money” featured more prominently than tax cuts at a “Supply Side” conference in New York City, at which luminaries such as Robert Mundell, Steve Forbes, Arthur Laffer and Larry Kudlow offered their views.

Many of the participants in this conference called for “a return to the gold standard.” However, it is important to recognize that there are at least four distinct types of gold standards, and that some will work and some will not.

The most “fundamentalist” type of gold standard could be called the “Specie Standard” system. Under this system, the dollar is defined as a fixed weight of fine gold, and the monetary base consists of gold coins. Paper money is allowed, but only as warehouse receipts for gold coins. The size of the monetary base is determined by the amount of gold that is presented to the Treasury (or private banks) to be minted into gold coins. There is no central bank, and no attempt by government to influence interest rates. Fractional reserve banking is not allowed.

Proposals for setting the gold value of the dollar under a Specie Standard range from $20.67/oz (the gold price in 1930), to $14,300/oz, which is the gold price required to make it possible to replace all of M1 (currently about $1.9 trillion) with coins minted from half of the U.S. government’s gold holdings (which currently total about 261 million ounces).

A Specie Standard would not work. Gold cannot be used as money — there isn’t enough of it. Setting the gold price high enough (more than $14,000/oz) to make it possible to replace all of the dollars of M1 with gold coins would produce explosive inflation (as the rest of the world gleefully sold us gold and bought up our assets), followed by a steady, grinding deflation.

If it were possible to get past the “start up” issue, a Specie Standard would be operationally stable — it would not be prone to sudden, acute financial panics. However, it would yield a chronic deflation that would produce high unemployment and would likely make long-term debt financing too risky (for both lender and borrower) to be undertaken.

The second basic type of gold standard could be called the “Classic Gold Standard” system. This is what we had in the 1920s. Under this system, gold is the “final” money, and the dollars of the monetary base are redeemable for a fixed amount of gold upon demand. However, the monetary base consists not only of gold, but also of paper money and bank reserves created by the central bank. The size of the monetary base is under the discretionary control of the central bank, but is ultimately limited by a “gold coverage” law. The central bank sets short-term interest rates, and fractional reserve banking is allowed.

A Classic Gold Standard also will not work. Any monetary system that uses gold as money will produce deflation, as the economy grows faster than the supply of gold. Also, the central bank and the (fractional reserve) banking system would face a nearly irresistible temptation to use their ability to create money to hold the deflation at bay as long as possible. Unfortunately, this would cause deflation to build up in the system, and would guarantee a banking panic/liquidity crisis/economic collapse at some point. This is exactly what happened in 1930.

The third basic type of gold standard could be called the Bretton Woods system (after the monetary system that was used from 1948 to 1971). Under a Bretton Woods system, the monetary base consists of fiat dollars (both currency and bank reserves) created by the Federal Reserve. The monetary base is convertible into gold at the Fed or the Treasury (in the case of the actual Bretton Woods system, at $35/oz, but only for foreign central banks). The Fed sets short-term interest rates, and fractional reserve banking is allowed.

A Bretton Woods system could work. As in the case for all gold standards, setting the gold conversion price at the correct level would be crucial.

The actual Bretton Woods system failed because the Fed did not manage the size of the monetary base so as to keep the free market price of gold equal to the official price. However, a Bretton Woods system can be “attacked” via mass conversion of dollars into gold. It also creates the potential for the Fed to (mistakenly) provide opportunities for arbitrage between the official gold price and the interest rates set by the central bank.

The fourth type of gold standard could be called the “Dollar Bill” system. The name comes from the title of the bill that Congressman Ted Poe (TX-02) is planning to introduce into the 112th Congress for the purpose of fulfilling Congress’ Constitutional mandate to “…coin money, (and) regulate the value thereof…” (Article I, Section 8).

Under a Dollar Bill system, the monetary base consists of fiat dollars (both currency and bank reserves) created by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is not allowed to set interest rates, and it is relieved of responsibility for promoting full employment. Instead, the Fed is tasked with employing its Open Market operations to adjust the size of the monetary base so as to keep the COMEX price of gold as close as operationally practical to a target gold price. Fractional reserve banking is allowed.

The target gold price is set by naming a “date and time certain” sometime in the near future, and then fixing the target price at the market price on the COMEX at that moment. This is similar to the approach that was used to establish the final exchange rates for the currencies that were replaced by the euro.

A Dollar Bill system could work. Unlike a Bretton Woods system, it cannot be “attacked” in an effort to drain Fort Knox and panic the Fed. And, because the Fed is not involved in setting short-term interest rates, it creates no opportunities for arbitrage. The mechanism used for setting the target gold price would force the markets to disclose “what gold is really worth”, thus avoiding both inflation and deflation at startup.

The Fed’s discretionary, fiat money, “dual mandate” system is failing. It is creating inflation, impeding economic growth, and provoking rising anxiety. It is sowing the seeds of a sudden, violent “dollar crisis”. It is time to stop the madness and make the U.S. dollar once again “as good as gold”. The “Dollar Bill” will show the way.


Stop The Madness: Make The Dollar As Good As Gold - Louis Woodhill - Unconventional Logic - Forbes

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

China economist blasts dollar dominance on eve of G20 | Reuters

(Reuters) - Dollar dominance is sowing the seeds of financial turmoil, and the solution is to promote new reserve currencies, a Chinese government economist said in a paper published on the eve of a G20 meeting about how to reform the global monetary system.

Although not an official policy statement, the paper by Xu Hongcai, a department deputy director at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, offered a window onto the domestic pressures bearing on Beijing to move away from a dollar-centric global economy.

The China Center, a top government think tank, has represented the Chinese government in organizing a forum on Thursday in Nanjing that will bring together finance ministers, central bankers and academics from the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies.

Xu's paper, "Reform of the international monetary system under the G20 framework," was published in Chinese on the center's website this week (www.cciee.org.cn).

"Nations around the world have no way of restricting dollar issuance by the Federal Reserve. The current international monetary system lacks both stability and fairness," Xu wrote.

He said the global monetary system had fallen into a "dollar trap." While it would be sensible to reduce dollar holdings in official currency reserves, nations cannot easily cut back, because doing so would only lead the dollar to weaken and so hit the value of their assets, he said.

CHINA'S DILEMMA

China's dollar dilemma is particularly acute, though Xu did not say as much. China had $2.85 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of last year, more than any other country. About two-thirds are estimated to be invested in dollars.

Beijing has repeatedly warned that loose U.S. monetary policy threatens the dollar, but it has continued to accumulate dollar assets at the same time, adding about $260 billion of Treasury securities last year, according to U.S. data.

With the Chinese government determined to limit yuan appreciation, it must buy a large amount of the dollars streaming into the country from its trade surplus and recycle those into U.S. investments.

Xu was not shy about proposing ways to remake the global monetary system.

For a start, he said diversification was needed, with several reserve currencies. Other countries could reinforce these currencies' status by buying or selling them to keep their exchange rates stable, Xu said.

He said the International Monetary Fund should also play a policing role.

"If any international reserve currency depreciates, the IMF would be responsible for issuing a timely alert, increasing international pressure to force the country in question to take measures to stabilize its currency," he said.

LITTLE SUPPORT

Xu's call for regular intervention to keep key currencies steady is unlikely to find much support among developed economies, which have come to view a system of floating, largely market-determined exchange rates as the most stable underpinning of the global economy.

When the G7 rich countries banded together to weaken the yen earlier this month, it was their first joint intervention since 2000 and came against the extraordinary background of speculator-driven yen appreciation afterJapan's devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis.

Xu also suggested that the Special Drawing Right, the IMF's unit of account, should gradually be built into a global reserve currency, although he noted this would still be a long time off.

Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said two years ago that the SDR would be better than the dollar as a supra-national reserve currency, disconnected from the interests of any single country.

With France at the helm of the G20 this year, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has seized on the SDR idea, promoting it as a possible alternative to the dollar-led global monetary order. But China itself appears to have cooled on the SDR, instead describing it as a largely symbolic issue.

For all the defects in the global monetary system identified by Xu, foreign officials, especially from the United States, have said that China has a much easier solution within its grasp.

By allowing the yuan to float freely, the Chinese central bank would no longer need to buy dollars flowing into the country and so could drastically slow its accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.


China economist blasts dollar dominance on eve of G20 | Reuters

EconomicPolicyJournal.com: HOT: JPMorgan CEO says Hundreds of Municiplaities "Won't Make It"

n a speech before the United States Chamber of Commerce, JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon told the audience:
I wouldn’t panic about what I’m about to say. You’re going to see some municipalities not make it. I don’t think it’s going to shatter America, I just think it’s a part of the credit cycle.
He went on to say that some municipalities will need to renegotiate their debt and it will be hundreds of them that may “not make it.”

Analyst Meredith Whitney has been essentially warning about the same thing but has been under attack for her comments from the muni bond industry and has faced extensive repeated attacks for her view in columns by FOX reporter Charlie Gasparino.
EconomicPolicyJournal.com: HOT: JPMorgan CEO says Hundreds of Municiplaities "Won't Make It"

Food Inflation Kept Hidden in Smaller Bags - CNBC

Chips are disappearing from bags, candy from boxes and vegetables from cans.

George Boyle | Stockbyte | Getty Images

As an expected increase in the cost of raw materials looms for late summer, consumers are beginning to encounter shrinking food packages.

With unemployment still high, companies in recent months have tried to camouflage price increases by selling their products in tiny and tinier packages. So far, the changes are most visible at the grocery store, where shoppers are paying the same amount, but getting less.

For Lisa Stauber, stretching her budget to feed her nine children in Houston often requires careful monitoring at the store. Recently, when she cooked her usual three boxes of pasta for a big family dinner, she was surprised by a smaller yield, and she began to suspect something was up.

“Whole wheat pasta had gone from 16 ounces to 13.25 ounces,” she said. “I bought three boxes and it wasn’t enough — that was a little embarrassing. I bought the same amount I always buy, I just didn’t realize it, because who reads the sizes all the time?”

Ms. Stauber, 33, said she began inspecting her other purchases, aisle by aisle. Many canned vegetables dropped to 13 or 14 ounces from 16; boxes of baby wipes went to 72 from 80; and sugar was stacked in 4-pound, not 5-pound, bags, she said.

Five or so years ago, Ms. Stauber bought 16-ounce cans of corn. Then they were 15.5 ounces, then 14.5 ounces, and the size is still dropping. “The first time I’ve ever seen an 11-ounce can of corn at the store was about three weeks ago, and I was just floored,” she said. “It’s sneaky, because they figure people won’t know.”

In every economic downturn in the last few decades, companies have reduced the size of some products, disguising price increases and avoiding comparisons on same-size packages, before and after an increase. Each time, the marketing campaigns are coy; this time, the smaller versions are “greener” (packages good for the environment) or more “portable” (little carry bags for the takeout lifestyle) or “healthier” (fewer calories).

Where companies cannot change sizes — as in clothing or appliances — they have warned that prices will be going up, as the costs of cotton, energy, grain and other raw materials are rising.

“Consumers are generally more sensitive to changes in prices than to changes in quantity,” John T. Gourville, a marketing professor at Harvard Business School, said. “And companies try to do it in such a way that you don’t notice, maybe keeping the height and width the same, but changing the depth so the silhouette of the package on the shelf looks the same. Or sometimes they add more air to the chips bag or a scoop in the bottom of the peanut butter jar so it looks the same size.”

Thomas J. Alexander, a finance professor at Northwood University, said that businesses had little choice these days when faced with increases in the costs of their raw goods. “Companies only have pricing power when wages are also increasing, and we’re not seeing that right now because of the high unemployment,” he said.

Most companies reduce products quietly, hoping consumers are not reading labels too closely.

But the downsizing keeps occurring. A can of Chicken of the Sea albacore tuna is now packed at 5 ounces, instead of the 6-ounce version still on some shelves, and in some cases, the 5-ounce can costs more than the larger one. Bags of Doritos, Tostitos and Fritos now hold 20 percent fewer chips than in 2009, though a spokesman said those extra chips were just a “limited time” offer.

Trying to keep customers from feeling cheated, some companies are introducing new containers that, they say, have terrific advantages — and just happen to contain less product.

Kraft is introducing “Fresh Stacks” packages for its Nabisco Premium saltines and Honey Maid graham crackers. Each has about 15 percent fewer crackers than the standard boxes, but the price has not changed. Kraft says that because the Fresh Stacks include more sleeves of crackers, they are more portable and “the packaging format offers the benefit of added freshness,” said Basil T. Maglaris, a Kraft spokesman, in an e-mail.

And Procter & Gamble is expanding its “Future Friendly” products, which it promotes as using at least 15 percent less energy, water or packaging than the standard ones.

“They are more environmentally friendly, that’s true — but they’re also smaller,” said Paula Rosenblum, managing partner for retail systems research at Focus.com, an online specialist network. “They announce it as great new packaging, and in fact what it is is smaller packaging, smaller amounts of the product,” she said.

Or marketers design a new shape and size altogether, complicating any effort to comparison shop. The unwrapped Reese’s Minis, which were introduced in February, are smaller than the foil-wrapped Miniatures. They are also more expensive — $0.57 an ounce at FreshDirect, versus $0.37 an ounce for the individually wrapped.

At H. J. Heinz, prices on ketchup, condiments, sauces and Ore-Ida products have already gone up, and the company is selling smaller-than-usual versions of condiments, like 5-ounce bottles of items like Heinz 57 Sauce sold at places like Dollar General.

“I have never regretted raising prices in the face of significant cost pressures, since we can always course-correct if the outcome is not as we expected,” Heinz’s chairman and chief executive, William R. Johnson, said last month.

While companies have long adjusted package sizes to appeal to changing tastes, from supersizes to 100-calorie packs, the recession drove a lot of corporations to think small. The standard size for Edy’s ice cream went from 2 liters to 1.5 in 2008. And Tropicana shifted to a 59-ounce carton rather than a 64-ounce one last year, after the cost of oranges rose.

With prices for energy and for raw materials like corn, cotton and sugar creeping up and expected to surge later this year, companies are barely bothering to cover up the shrinking packs.

“Typically, the product manufacturers are doing this slightly ahead of the perceived inflationary issues,” Ms. Rosenblum said. “Lately, it hasn’t been subtle — I mean, they’ve been shrinking by noticeable amounts.”

That can work to a company’s benefit. In the culture of thinness, smaller may be a selling point. It lets retailers honestly claim, for example, that a snack package contains fewer calories — without having to change the ingredients a smidge.

“For indulgences like ice cream, chocolate and potato chips, consumers may say ‘I don’t mind getting a little bit less because I shouldn’t be consuming so much anyway,’ ” said Professor Gourville. “That’s a harder argument to make with something like diapers or orange juice.”

But even while companies blame the recession for smaller packages, they rarely increase sizes in good times, he said.

He traced the shrinking package trends to the late 1980s, when companies like Chock full o’ Nuts downsized the one-pound tin of ground coffee to 13 ounces. That shocked consumers, for whom a pound of coffee had been as standard a purchase unit as a dozen eggs or a six-pack of beer, he said.

Once the economy rebounds, he said, a new “jumbo” size product typically emerges, at an even higher cost per ounce. Then the gradual shrinking process of all package sizes begins anew, he said.

“It’s a continuous cycle, where at some point the smallest package offered becomes so small that perhaps they’re phased out and replaced by the medium-size package, which has been shrunk down,” he said.

Food Inflation Kept Hidden in Smaller Bags - CNBC

CNBC's Fast Money: Forget About a Raise, More Consumers Expecting Paycut - CNBC

More Americans expect their salaries to be cut soon, reversing a steady decline in the number of workers who fear pay cuts, according to a March survey. Adding insult to injury, those same consumers expect to take a bigger hit on expenses because of rising inflation.

Mason Morfit | Taxi | Getty Images

The percentage of Americans who expect a decrease in their income over the next six months ticked back higher to 15.3 percent in March, up from 13 percent in February, which had been the best reading of wage confidence since 2008, according to fresh survey data from the Conference Board.

About the same percentage last month—15.3 percent—expect a pay increase, and the rest of consumers surveyed expect their income to stay the same.

Inflation expectations also jumped to their highest in two years, according to the private analytics firm.

Stocks are higher in 2011 and just below their bull-market highs this weekas investors overlook stagnant consumer data and instead concentrate oncash-rich companies looking to merge or buy back stock, as well as a Federal Reserve ready to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, investors said.

That sentiment contrasts with the attitudes of workers, who believe their wages are endangered once again as companies remain reluctant to hire and costs for raw materials rise. At the height of the crisis, nearly a quarter of Americans expected a paycut within six months, and many got one.

S&P 500 Index
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“The Fed chairman won’t become concerned about inflation until it’s wage-driven, and these numbers indicate the opposite,” said Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services.

Personal income increased 0.3 percent in February, the Bureau of Economic Analysis data released Monday. But accounting for inflation, real disposable income decreased 0.1 percent last month.

“An overall negative number insures continued Fed accommodation despite inflation fears,” said Iuorio.

Ironically, a growing number of investors believe the Fed is doing more harm than good by inadvertently boosting commodity costs, thereby increasing expenditures for companies that could use that money instead to give raises to overworked employees. Prices for cotton, silver, coffee and corn are up more than 80 percent in 12 months.

Beyond the money

The stock market, meanwhile, is signaling a bit of indigestion in reaction to consumer sentiment. Shares of Target [TGT 49.16 -0.39 (-0.79%) ] approached a new 52-week low on Tuesday, while consumer discretionary shares [XLY 38.77 0.3525 (+0.92%) ] are one of two S&P 500 sectors (the other is financials) that are in the red over the last five days.

“The market will start to care when first-quarter earnings releases come out, and investors see first-hand the falling wage confidence effect and can quantify what this means,” said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

CNBC's Fast Money: Forget About a Raise, More Consumers Expecting Paycut - CNBC

Chart: Declines in all but two of 20 major U.S. markets - latimes.com

Chart: Declines in all but two of 20 major U.S. markets


Chart: Declines in all but two of 20 major U.S. markets - latimes.com

China bank regulator warns of property bubble risks - Yahoo! Finance

BEIJING (Reuters) - Risks that could lead to a property bubble are still building up in China, and more action is needed to cool speculative fervor, the country's banking regulator said on Tuesday.

In a report about last year's banking performance, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also asked lenders to strictly implement rules limiting mortgages to help rein in real estate prices.

"There are still some irrational factors in the property market," the CBRC said.

"The performance of the property market has a long-term and important impact on the sound and stable development of banking industry," it added.

It noted rising pressure on the balance sheets of some smaller banks and vowed to keep a close eye on the banks' liquidity conditions to prevent risks.

"We will implement the system of monitoring the daily average loan-to-deposit ratio on a monthly basis this year," it said.

The CBRC has drawn up a tough new set of capital rules as part of efforts to implement Basel III guidelines, according to a document obtained by Reuters in February.

But the regulator did not mention the new capital rules in its annual report.

It reiterated that it would strictly control lending to financing vehicles used by local governments to circumvent restrictions on their incurring debt, which economists warn could fuel a rise in bad loans in coming years.

"The clean up of local financing vehicles debts has shown initial results, but we should not relax our efforts to control later risks," the commission said in the report.

The CBRC also sounded a worried note about global economic prospects in 2011, citing uncertainties posed by the European debt crisis and ultra-loose monetary policies in developed countries.

"The quantitative easing policies adopted by the U.S., European countries and Japan have added more pressure to emerging market inflation and asset prices, creating uncertainties for the world economy," it added.

Given this context, Chinese banks have to make full preparations for future difficulties, the CBRC said.

"The Chinese banking industry still faces some challenges in 2011, given the changing and complicated situations at home and abroad," the report said.

China bank regulator warns of property bubble risks - Yahoo! Finance

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Adjusted money base

Fed's Evans says commodity prices not sign of inflation - Yahoo! News

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) – Surging U.S. gas and food prices are unlikely to trigger a broad rise in costs that would force the U.S. Federal Reserve to reverse its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, a top Fed official said on Monday.

"Commodity price increases do not necessarily portend future broad inflation," Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said. "In fact, despite the views aired by pundits, the historical evidence is that today's commodity price increases will likely have little discernible effect on future core inflation."

While the U.S. recovery has become sustainable, it is still moderate and still needs the boost that the Fed is supplying through near-zero interest-rates and large asset purchases designed to push down borrowing costs, Evans said.

"Slow progress in closing resource gaps and underlying inflation trends that are too low lead me to conclude that substantial policy accommodation continues to be appropriate," Evans said. The U.S. central bank will likely complete its current $600 billion bond-buying program in June, on schedule, he added.

Inflation fears have risen recently on a spike in oil and commodities costs, driven in part by political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa. In the last three months U.S. energy prices have risen at an annual pace of 29 percent, while food prices have risen 14 percent.

Evans said the higher prices for food and gas are unlikely to lead to broader price increases because a weak labor market means there is little upward pressure on wages. Without higher wages, consumers will be unable to pay higher prices, keeping wider inflation under wraps.

Higher commodity prices will likely push total inflation up to 2 percent this year from its recent 1.5 percent, but underlying inflation continues to be subdued, Evans said.

"If unforeseen price increases alter inflation expectations and these expectations for higher prices boost longer-run underlying inflation, then it may become appropriate to adjust policy," Evans said. But historical evidence suggests such a scenario is unlikely, he said.

Evans, a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee, has been one of the Fed's more dovish policymakers, more concerned with the dangers of high unemployment than with the threat of inflation.


Fed's Evans says commodity prices not sign of inflation - Yahoo! News